Does AI Have A Future?

The buzz around AI is high at the moment, and it's easy to see why. The technology is remarkable, with companies like OpenAI creating models that can generate text almost indistinguishable from that written by humans. Many organisations are discussing how AI will revolutionise productivity and change the world forever, with big tech firms and investors committing vast sums of money to its development. With all this excitement, the question is: What is the future of AI? We've seen many false dawns, such as the Metaverse and NFTs, but will AI prove to be the real deal?

Firstly, it’s important to clarify that this blog refers specifically to Generative AI. While machine learning has been around for years and is already quite successful, Generative AI—or Gen AI—has only recently taken off. Major technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Meta have invested billions in developing AI infrastructure, including specialised chips and data centres. Goldman Sachs recently suggested that investment in AI could exceed one trillion dollars in the coming years.

This level of spending suggests that artificial intelligence will be the next big thing. However, given the amount of investment, what will generate the returns that will make AI profitable? Some are skeptical. The hedge fund Elliott Management told its investors that AI is overhyped, with many of its applications unlikely to be cost-efficient or sustainable due to their immense energy requirements. Essentially, the question is: If the investment in AI is going to cost trillions of dollars, what will AI do that will generate more than a trillion dollars in value the future?

At the moment, the answer isn’t clear. So far, there aren't many obvious use cases for AI that are poised to become profitable. It seems as though large companies are building capacity before it’s needed, with profitable business models expected to come later.

There are also other challenges that could impact AI's success in the future. The first is energy. It’s expected that data centres powering AI will need a similar amount of power as the Netherlands. With net-zero targets, this will also need to be clean energy. Another potential issue is societal attitudes toward AI. If AI is perceived as a threat to jobs, it may be prevented from being used to its full capacity. Additionally, there is a skills gap, with many people lacking the expertise to effectively integrate AI into their businesses. Ultimately, if AI is to be as widely adopted in the future as many hope, these issues will need to be addressed.

Time will tell whether AI has a future, with many questions still unanswered. On the positive side, the sheer amount of investment, particularly by big companies that can afford to not make a profit on AI for some time, suggests that AI has a good chance of being here to stay. On the other hand, the lack of clear use cases that will generate a return, along with the energy costs and societal concerns, may hold the technology back.